page contents

January 25:  In looking for where crude oil might pause or reverse in the short term, this chart shows two clues.  Using fibonacci extensions based on prices of 65.65, 57.36, and 59.77, the 100% projection predicts 51.48.  Price did pause briefly at the 50% level as shown on the chart, which shows that the pattern has some validity.  Price then proceeded lower so the 100% level is still in play.

However, there is now a divergence with the ultimate oscillator indicator with a higher low as crude made a lower low.  This gives a higher probability of a coming reversal to the upside, or at least some bottoming near this level.  If you look at the chart when price went above $64, the ultimate oscillator made lower highs at that time, which gave a signal that the rise was finishing.  These divergences should be met with caution by considering stepping aside, selling a portion of positions, or at least tightening stops.

February 1 update:  The chart has been updated today.  Yesterday crude oil had a low of $50.97, which completes the fibonacci projection to the 100% level.  The ultimate oscillator continues to caution that the price is tending to reverse upward.

February 4 update:  Price continues weak.  The chart was updated today.