October 2: GDX trends down while Ultimate Oscillator trends up. This gives an elevated probability of a bottom forming.
October 15 update: GDX dropped below support, but ultimate oscillator divergence remains.
November 18 update: 25.98 is the low so far. Ultimate Oscillator remains supportive.
November 20 update: We have edited the chart to show new patterns developing. The ultimate oscillator continues to trend upward. An Andrew’s pitchfork pattern is shown in blue with the trend break trigger line in red. The fork pattern is negated if price drops below the trigger line. If the pattern is valid, the tines of the fork will act as magnets attracting and repelling price.
Additionally we have calclulated fibonacci extension levels to watch. If price breaks decisively above the 23.6% fibonacci level at a price of 28.69, then the 50% level at 31.39 becomes probable, and a break above that level makes the 100% level at 36.80 more probable. This fibonacci pattern is negated if price falls below the 0% level at 25.98.
November 28 update: Price came down to the trend break trigger line, but hasn’t clearly broken below it and has remained above the November 12 low of 25.98.
December 13 update: GDX remains above the trend break trigger line on the chart.
December 20 update: The chart was updated today. GDX price continues to ride like a tightrope along the trend break trigger line.
December 28 update: On December 26 the high was 29.25, which, as predicted by the bullish rounded bottom, decisively broke above the fibonacci extension trigger line shown in green on the chart. This gives an elevated probability that price will reach the 50% level of 31.39, then when that is exceeded, the 100% level of 36.80. These numbers are slightly different from our original calculations due to price adjustments for dividends, etc. by Stockcharts.com.
January 17 update: The fibonacci targets of 31.39, then 36.80 remain in effect. Price continues to dance precariously on the Andrew’s pitchfork trend break trigger line. The original round bottom drawing is still on the chart, but it has been drawn out a bit and remains valid. Ultimate Oscillator fell with price on Jan 8, which is concerning.
Traders would have entered a buy on the break above the green line with a stop just below the November 12 low of 25.79. Bold traders would buy the dip with stops at the above mentioned level. When price reaches the 50% target, prudent traders would sell half and raise stops to the green line.
February 8 update: Price has fallen below the pitchfork trend break trigger line with a low of 27.77. The gold price has been positive, so there is room for optimism for the miners. The fibonacci extension trade is still in effect.
February 13 update: The chart was updated. GDX price dropped below the trend break trigger line, but price is remaining inside a bull flag. The fibonacci extension trade remains valid. Caution is warranted.
February 21 update: The high today was 30.71.
March 3 update: The 50% fibonacci target was met. If the trader had taken half in profit at that point and raised stops it would have been a profitable trade even with the corona virus inspired selloff. We will watch to see if the old pattern resumes after the spike bottom and recovery.