October 3: The tines of the fork act as magnets, attracting and repelling price. Note how price followed the lower tine, then jumped to the middle tine, followed it for a while, then jumped to the upper tine and followed it for a while. Now it has bounced off of the middle tine.
October 15 update: Gold returned to the center tine of this fork.
October 30: Chart was updated today with trend change trigger line added. Price continues along the center line of the fork.
December 18: Chart was updated today. The bottom tine has been acting perfectly as support.
December 28 update: Fibonacci extension targets have been added. Upon a move past the green trigger line at 1520.93 the 50% target at 1595.65 and 100% target at 1745.10 become probable. This is based on a low of 1267.3, high of 1566.20, and a low of 1446.20.
December 31 update: The game is on. Spot gold reached 1524.80 overnight, predicting a rise to 1595, then 1745 during the next few months.
January 8 update: Spot gold went over $1600 overnight, which decisively crossed the 50% target. This makes the 100% target at $1745 likely in the next few months. Normally we would expect a slow grind back and forth to stay above a big even number like $1600. Trades based on this setup would raise stops to the green line trigger point now. Selling half at the 50% level while raising stops would have been good money management in this case.
January 18 update: There is a similarity between this chart and the charts of silver and mining share ETFs that offers encouragement to fibonacci extension traders. If you look at the corrections from February 2019 to May 2019 and the correction from September 2019 to November 2019, these two corrections look similar in duration and depth. So this proportionality gives added probability that the fibonacci targets listed above on December 28 are valid. The same pattern can be used on silver and mining share ETFs at this time.
February 21 update: The chart was updated today. The identified patterns continue to hold nicely.
March 3: The chart was updated today. The fork pattern is holding well. The fibonacci pattern identified on December 28 remains in effect, so $1745 is still in play.
March 14 update: Price dropped below the fork, but the daily uptrend remains in place. On the weekly chart there was an outside bar key reversal to the downside, which is bearish for the intermediate term outlook. The monthly chart remains bullish.
April 13 update: The Fibonacci extension forecast identified on December 28 above was completed today with a high on gold futures of $1752. Although the price came close to breaking below the stop level of $1446, it stayed above it by $4. The Andrew’s pitchfork pattern has still not been broken below the trend break trigger line.