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Feb 6: The charts for SIL silver miners ETF and SILJ junior silver miners ETF have similar formations today. Notice the two bear leg formations flagged on the chart. They are both of similar depth and duration. Also they both show ultimate oscillator divergence. As the price had lower lows, the ultimate oscillator had higher lows as indicated by the green lines on the chart above. This divergence usually serves as a warning of a coming price reversal.

At this time we are watching the February 4 low of 29.75 to see if it marks the start of a new bull leg. If that level holds, then based on fibonacci extensions, the buy point is when 31.41 is exceeded. The 50% and 100% price targets are shown in the chart. However, aggressive traders would buy now based on the UO divergence with trailing stops starting below the trend break trigger line.

February 13 update:  The trade was triggered, then price fell a bit.  The pattern remains valid.

February 21 update:  The high today was 33.12, surpassing the 50% level.

February 28 update:  SIL was crushed in the selloff in silver.  SIL was down as low as 26.25 today, nullifying this setup.