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Price Forecasting

Be skeptical whenever anyone makes a price forecast for a specific time interval. We have seen it in many cases over the years where the biggest experts made a specific price and time prediction. Most of these predictions turn out to be wrong, sometimes catastrophically wrong. This is a big pitfall when basing forecasts on economic and political factors. All of the conditions might be met, but price can go the other way in spite of all that. So if an expert gives a prediction, we need to look under the hood to find out what factors went into making that prediction, then look at the probability that these factors will indeed influence price within the time frame given. Factors that “should” affect price often don’t for many years on end.

It is better to think of it in terms of probability rather than opinion on what should happen. That is why we here at prefer technical chart probability factors and patterns when looking at where prices will go in the future. We look for patterns that more often than not increase the probability of price moving in a certain direction, and/or to a certain level. With the judicious use of stops, price targets and trailing stops, we can use these probabilities to our advantage. The advantage is that when the chart setup is broken down, the forecast is nullified by definition and you can exit. This automatically changes expectations.

The point here is that instead of relying on the opinion of an expert, just look at the probability factors and work from there. You have to be prepared for a prediction to be wrong in spite of what seems to be common sense.