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Market Views

Market conditions comments and charts

DBA Fibonacci Extension Targets

October 11: By decisively crossing above the first fibonacci level, DBA now has a target of 16.85.  This setup would be broken if price goes below the 0% level.

Crude oil fibonacci extensions

October 11:  Crude oil looks likely to at least hit the 50% level.

Junior Gold Miners ETF Chart with Andrew's Pitchfork

October 4: GDXJ price has settled into the upper channel of this fork.

Gold Daily Chart with Andrew's Pitchfork

October 3: The tines of the fork act as magnets, attracting and repelling price.  Note how price followed the lower tine, then jumped to the middle tine, followed it for a while, then jumped to the upper tine and followed it for a while.  Now it has bounced off of the middle tine.

GDX Daily Chart

October 2:  GDX trends down while Ultimate Oscillator trends up.  This gives an elevated probability of a bottom forming.

DBA Weekly Chart

September 13: The weekly DBA chart (agricultural commodities) had an outside day key reversal to the upside. The last one back in May resulted in a multi-week rally that eventually failed. 

October 11 update:  DBA closed at 15.90.

Gold Futures Daily Chart Fibonacci Levels

September 13: Using fibonacci extensions on futures charts, the projected price targets are shown.  These targets are triggered when price goes through the 23.6% line.  Each fibonacci level acts as a magnet which attracts and repels the price.

October 1 update: Gold futures had a low of 1465.  A break above the 0% level before dropping to 100% would be a bullish indicator.

Silver futures daily chart

September 27: Silver broke down and triggered new downside fibonacci targets  Silver more than most vehicles “always” returns down to previous support levels on the way up.  In this instance it touched on that, then went up and now back down for a second, deeper test of support.  See our article on silver retracements.

October 1 update:  Silver futures had a low of 16.94 so far. 

SPY Fibonacci Levels

September 19:  Above is a daily chart of SPY with fibonacci extensions and Andrew’s pitchfork with MACD.  The way price sliced through the 50% and 61.8% levels gives weight to a probable run up to the 100% level above 310.  This price target remains valid unless price falls below the 0% level.

 September 17: The repo rate overnight spiked to an all time high of 10%, an indication of interbank liquidity problems.

September 16: “JPMorgan’s Metals Desk Was a Criminal Enterprise, U.S. Says.”
Bloomberg

September 12: Russia So Flush, Could Pay Off ALL Debt – Foreign, Municipal, Regional, and Domestic – With Cash! ‘Net Debt’ Falls to Zero, -Ben Aris “If Russia suddenly needed to pay off all its debts immediately, it could do it just by dipping into the cash on account at the government deposits with the central bank and commercial banks,” writes Ivan Tkachev, the economics editor at RBC media.


Meanwhile, the U.S. owes $22.5 trillion. 

Long Term Real Estate Chart

August 16, 2019: VNQ, is the Vanguard Real Estate ETF “tracking the performance of the MSCI US Investable Market Real Estate 25/50 Index that measures the performance of publicly traded equity REITs and other real estate-related investments.”
Make of it what you will. 2007 was considered by many at the time to be a real estate bubble.

Chart updated September 10.

Gold:Silver Ratio starting in 1980

The chart shows the historic gold/silver ratio from 1980.  The ratio was 16 in 1980.  The dotted line shows the median level of about 62, which at $1500 gold would mean $24 silver.  A ratio of 16 would mean $93 silver.

Silver seems unlikely to return to the historic 16 to 1 ratio now that governments are no longer drawing supply for minting silver coins intended for everyday use as money.  

Chart updated September 10.

Gold Long Term Fibonacci projections

Using fibonacci extensions on a 20 year gold chart we can see that a projected price target of $2714 has been triggered as the gold price surpassed the 23.6% fibonacci level.

Long Term Gold Chart with Andrew's Pitchfork

Above is another long term chart with Andrew’s pitchfork added.  The theory is that each tine of the fork acts as a magnet (as do fibonacci levels), either repelling or attracting the price.  For now the setup looks valid as the bottom tine is acting as the guide pulling and pushing the price as it goes up.  Using pitchforks in combination with fibonacci extensions can be a powerful combination trading/investment tool.

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Market Views

Market conditions comments and charts